Oilseeds growers set to reap double bonanza

At the start of the kharif season, farmers in Maharashtra, Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh had talked of cutting their coverage of oilseeds. Higher imports and inventories, too, threatened to affect oilseeds sowing. Then, there was no inkling of the emerging global supply scenario with Russia suffering one of its worst droughts, and La Nina, which brings in bountiful rain, affecting palm oil production in Malaysia. Also, no one had given a thought about the southern States, the worst-affected last year due to drought. Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka experienced good rainfall from June, encouraging farmers to go in for early sowing. Thanks to the high prices for oilseeds such as groundnut and sesame, farmers in these States went in for these crops or castor on a largescale. Elsewhere in Madhya Pradesh, farmers still gathered courage to sow soyabean despite high inventories. The end result, oilseeds acreage increased to 175.49 lakh hectares (lh) this kharif against 174.43 lh last year. In turn, the output of nine kharif oilseeds is projected to be 172.7 lakh tonnes (lt) against 156.6 lt last year. Though the acreage has increased only marginally, the weather pattern this year has ensured better yield. Arrivals are yet to pick up in most oilseeds as the harvest has been delayed but the 200 lakh tonnes oilseeds inventories seen at the start of the kharif sowing has been reduced to 5-6 lakh tonnes. Thanks to rising demand for oilmeals, inventories are vanishing fast. Demand for soyameal in particular has increased in South-East Asia and the Far-East following drought in Russia. In October alone, oilmeals exports increased 61 per cent. Soyabean production is likely to be 101 lakh tonnes this year. There have been problems in certain parts of Madhya Pradesh such as Indore, Bhopal and Dhar and Sikaur due to last minute rains. But production in other parts of Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra are set to make up. According to the Agriculture Ministry, groundnut production is likely to be higher at 56.4 lt (36.6 lt) and that of soyabean at 98.1 lt (100.5 lt). No major variation is likely in soyabean production. There may be 2-3 per cent change due to the late rain. But it would be over 100 lt. Though domestic edible oil prices have dropped from the highs seen in September, they are still higher than rates that prevailed during the same period a year ago. For example, groundnut oil (loose) is currently ruling at Rs 725 for 10 kg against Rs 635 a year ago. Similarly, soyabean refined oil is ruling at Rs 570/10 kg against Rs 430 a year ago. With global prices for vegetable oils ruling near two-year high, chances of oilseeds farmers getting better prices are bright. In fact, it will be a double bonanza, higher output and higher price for Indian oilseed growers. With domestic prices reflecting global rates, farmers could be assured of good returns, he said. Currently, soyabean is ruling at Rs 2,250 at the mandis, the same as last year. However, in Karnataka groundnut output is expected to fall about 50,000 tonnes short the 6.5 lakh tonnes target. Sunflower output has been pegged at 80,000 tonnes against a target of 2.25 lakh tonnes. Sunflower production is likely to be half of last year since farmers shifted to other crops.

India, US widen scope of farm tie-up with 3 pacts

US President Barack Obama and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh unfurled new signposts in bilateral ties – such as a new security pact, tie-ups in energy, health and agriculture -- at a joint news conference on Mr. Obama’s maiden visit to India. Wherein, the leaders announced new initiatives in agriculture collaboration designed to address two of India's biggest farm worries – food security and crop weather forecast. The President's delegation already consists of USAID administrator Raj Shah and agriculture secretary Tom Vilsack, with both agencies playing a significant role. The showpiece of the collaboration is an Indo-US tie-up to design a more accurate model to predict India's increasingly erratic monsoon. An increasingly truant southwest monsoon remains a big worry for the government, as two-thirds of Indians depend on farm income and 60% of India's farmed areas remain outside its irrigation network. The Singh-Obama initiative will largely build on areas already being worked on. The aim to raise food yields by harnessing joint technologies. Specific deals were signed in the areas of market access, food security and weather forecasting. The widened scope of farm tie-ups have already being hammered outf following an MoU signed between the two countries in March. The spadework for the monsoon mission began in July when Planning Commission member, K Kasturirangan, and secretary in the department of earth sciences, Shailesh Nayak, visited the US National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration. The US model should be available to India to work on by December. India has homed in on the US model, called the "Couple Forecasting System", for two reasons. One, it combines both oceanography and atmospherical sciences, unlike the Indian model that relies mainly on the former. Two, scientists feel the US model can be better adapted to Indian conditions. Once access is granted, scientists from the Indian Council for Agricultural Research and Indian Space Research Organisation will team up with NOAA to fine-tune it to suit India's needs. First, it should predict sudden breaks in monsoon cycle fairly accurately and, secondly, enable more short-term and localised predictions, such as district level predictions.

Rice output may be lower than initial estimates

Last year, the Centre underestimated the country's kharif rice production by overestimating the impact of drought. Thus, in its first advance estimate, the output was assessed at 69.45 million tonnes (mt) that got revised subsequently to 75.91 mt. Much of this was on account of Punjab and Haryana. Both these States ended up harvesting bumper crops despite the drought. While the near-universal irrigation cover available with their farmers was definitely a factor here, the dry weather actually turned out a blessing of sorts: It ensured minimal incidence of attacks by the white-backed plant-hopper and other major pests and diseases. This time, it could be quite the opposite. In its first advance estimate, released in September, the Agriculture Ministry has projected kharif rice production for 2010 to rebound to 80.41 mt on the back of an overall surplus South-West monsoon. But going by mandi arrival trends so far, it looks as though the damage caused by floods in some paddy-growing areas and very little rains in some others has not been fully factored in by the Ministry – leading to a possible overestimation of output. In Punjab, only 122.21 lakh tonnes (lt) of paddy have arrived till now in the various mandis, compared to the 133.14 lt during this time last year. Haryana (24.51 lt versus 27.09 lt) and Uttar Pradesh (4.22 lt versus 6.59 lt), too, have recorded lower arrivals. As a result, total rice procurement by the Food Corporation of India (FCI) and State agencies in the ongoing 2010-11 marketing year (October-September) has been only 98.01 lt, as against cumulative buys of 106.32 lt during this period of 2009-10. Procurement is trailing in both Punjab (80.75 lt versus 87.42 lt) and Haryana (15.41 lt versus 17.14 lt). Officials ascribe the dip in the two north-western States to lower yields, which, in turn, were an outcome of floods in early-July that damaged large areas where planting of normal high-yielding parmal paddy had already taken place. Since this area could not be re-transplanted with non-basmati (the window for which was already over), farmers had to go in for basmati. And within basmati, they opted for even lower-yielding traditional varieties as opposed to the improved Pusa-1121 or Pusa Basmati-1 that had fetched low prices last year. In addition to this, farmers in Punjab had sown very little area this time under PAU-201, a variety giving 7.5 tonnes of paddy a hectare against 7 tonnes for normal non-basmati varieties. There were quality issues with PAU-201, with FCI refusing to buy on these grounds. As a result, its share in total non-basmati paddy area fell from a fifth to virtually nil and the overall yields, too, dropped, as expressed by a State official. In other States, a clear picture of production trends in other States is yet to emerge. However, the fact that West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand and East Uttar Pradesh have recorded deficient monsoon rains does not give much hope for a bumper crop from this region, which is a major paddy belt. The one State that, till recently, was expected to generate a good crop this year because of copious monsoon rains is Andhra Pradesh (AP). But two successive low-pressure build-ups within a week's span have changed it all. The latest floods are estimated to have inundated and destroyed some 3.21 lakh hectares of paddy area. AP estimated out paddy production this year at 84 lt. But now, we may have to contend with 10-15 lt less. While all these could result in a downward revision of the country's estimated rice production this year, it is unlikely, however, to really influence overall availability or prices. The main reason for this is the more-than-comfortable public foodgrain stocks. As on November 1, rice stocks in the Central pool, at 231.73 lt, exceeded the corresponding levels of 216.21 lt and 141.39 lt for the preceding two years.

India to Release Its1st Assessment on Climate Change

India will soon release its first assessment report on the impact of climate change on four sectors, including agriculture and water, in the country's four climatic hot spots like the Himalayas and the North East. The first 4x4 assessment report will be released on November 16. Prepared by Indian Network of Climate Change Assessment, it will assess the impact of climate change on four sectors of the economy - agriculture, water, health and forests -- in the four regions of the country. The four climatic regions are the Himalayas, Coastal India, the Western Ghats and the North East. North-East region is most important as it has the country's 25 per cent of forest cover and will be most severely affected due to climate change. The report has been prepared by INCCA comprising about 220 scientists from 120 research institutions across the country. The report on four sectors has come almost six months after Ramesh released the country's greenhouse gas (GHG) emission data India: Greenhouse Gas Emissions 2007 which said the country's emissions grew by 58 per cent during 1994 to 2007. By announcing the latest emission data, India became the first developing country to publish such updated numbers which reflects of its strong domestic actions and is likely to strengthen the country's negotiating positions at the UN meet on climate change at Cancun this month-end. On the need for the 4x4 assessment report, the country is faced with a serious threat of climate change, so we need to know what would be the impact of such changes in the middle term, like by 2030, and not wait for reports that are predicting for 2050 or later. India has already announced its intention to reduce its emission intensity of the GDP by 20-25 per cent by 2020, while pursuing inclusive growth.

9.4% unemployed, agriculture accounts for less than half of all jobs

A first-ever survey by the Labour Bureau under the Union Ministry of Labour has shown that chronic unemployment — being jobless for more than six months — in India for 2009-10 stands at 9.4 per cent of the population, more than thrice the 2.8 per cent estimated by the National Sample Survey Organisation (NSSO). The survey was conducted in 300 districts among the 28 states and union territories with working class age of 15 to 59 years. The unemployment rate was higher at 11.1 percent in rural areas as compared to 7.3 per cent in urban areas with women worse off at 14.6 per cent compared to just 8 per cent among men, said the ‘Report on Employment & Unemployment Survey 2009-10’. The NSSO’s findings based on Consumer Expenditure Survey for 2007-08 had placed the unemployment figure at 2.8 per cent counting 11 million as unemployed. In contrast, the Labour Bureau has estimated 40 million to be unemployed.

Kharif seen sprouting higher yields

Rural India could be in for a boom this kharif marketing season as growers are set to harvest better crop and get better prices. Almost all crops, barring the possibility of unseasonal rains, could follow the script of higher output as estimated by the Agriculture Ministry. However, rice production could be lower than Government's estimates. A clear picture is yet to emerge on sugar production but growers could still gain as production is likely to be higher than last year and exports are on the cards. Farmers in southern States, in particular, could reap the benefits of early rain, export demand and surging prices of edible oils and maize (corn). Cotton is likely to be the king of kharif crops as it is set for record production. Demand from exporters and spinning mills have already resulted in sharp rise in its prices. Pulses production is likely to be higher and though prices have dropped, they may not drop below the minimum support price level. Damages have been reported from Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka but they are unlikely to have a significant impact on overall production. In September, the Centre pegged kharif foodgrain production at 114.63 million tonnes (mt), up from last year's 103.84 mt.

Malawi seeks Indian help in 'greenbelt initiative'

Inspired by India’s “Green Revolution”, Malawi has sought Indian assistance in its “Greenbelt initiative” aimed at raising agricultural output. The southeast African nation is looking to India to tap its huge uranium deposits. Malawi is also negotiating to sign Double Taxation as well as Investment Promotion and Protection agreements with India. Malawi, a country of 14 million people, one of the world’s most densely populated nations, is mainly dependent on rain-fed agriculture but the recent climatic changes has affected its production. The “Greenbelt initiative” has been brought about by the Malawian government to counter climatic unpredictability. India and US joint projects discussed during US President Obama’s visit also sees great agricultural opportunities in Sub—Saharan Africa. India and Malawi will exceed the two-way trade target of $300 million within three years. India—Malawi bilateral trade at present is $185 million.