India wheat, non-basmati rice export ban may continue: USDA

India is unlikely to lift ban on export of wheat and non-basmati rice in the wake of high food inflation and food security concerns, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has said in its latest report.

India had suspended wheat exports in early 2007 and non basmati rice in 2008 due to high inflation in the country.

"The government of India may continue to ban exports of wheat and non-basmati rice due to ongoing food price inflation and food security concerns," the report said.

Pegging India's wheat output at 83 million tonnes (MT) in 2011-12 marketing year (April-March), the USDA said, "Despite forecasted record production, strong government procurement and abnormally high stocks, the government is unlikely to lift the ban on wheat exports due to continued food inflation concerns".

Currently, food inflation is still ruling high at 10.39 per cent for the week ended February 19.

According to the USDA, with the expected continuation of the export ban, overseas sale of wheat from India in the 2011-12 marketing year would be 3,00,000 tonnes and mostly confined to neighbouring countries like Nepal on humanitarian grounds.

Similarly, rice exports from the country are pegged at 2.5 Million Tonnes (MT) for the current year, which includes basmati rice, premium non-basmati and some concessional exports to neighbouring countries on humanitarian grounds, it said.

The USDA has forecast rice output from India at 94.5 MT, as compared to 89 MT last year. Wheat output in last year was 80.8 MT.

India's domestic wheat and rice demand is estimated at 84.5 MT and 96 MT, respectively for 2011-12 marketing year.

India's wheat ending stocks are seen more than double the government's desired stocks of 7 MT as on March-end of 2011, while rice ending stocks as on October 1, 2011 are expected to be three times higher than the desired stock of 7.2 MT, it said.

Presently, the government's rice procurement is underway and will continue till September 2011.

Wheat purchases would start from next month and total purchases are likely to be higher than 25.5 MT on record output and good MSP, the USDA added.

On domestic prices of these two staples, the USDA said local prices of rice and wheat are expected to remain steady this year on sufficient domestic supplies and expected continuation of the export ban.